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Saturday, May 13, 2006

>>>Intermarket relationships


These are larger or macro linkages. They may not hold in the very shortest-term period as information aberrations need some time for correcting themselves.

>Commodity prices and bond prices usually trend in the opposite direction.
(commodity prices and bond yields usually trend in the same direction)
>Bond prices usually trend in the same direction as the stock markets.
>Rising bond prices are good for stocks; falling bond prices are bad for stocks.
(falling bond yields are good for stocks; rising bond yields are bad for stocks.)
>The bond market usually changes direction long before stocks do;
therefore, the bond market
is a leading indicator of potential trend-changes in stocks.
>Commodity prices usually trend in the opposite direction of the dollar.
>A rising dollar is bad for commodities; a falling dollar is good for commodities.
>A rising dollar is normally good for US stocks and bonds because it is non-inflationary.
>A strong currency attracts foreign money into a country's stock markets.

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